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High Expenses & Lower Fee Income Likely to Hurt HBAN's Q4 Earnings

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Key Takeaways

  • HBAN is set to report Q4 results Jan. 22, with revenues and earnings expected to rise year over year.
  • Higher expenses and a sequential decline in total non-interest income may weigh down HBAN's results.
  • HBAN expects the Veritex integration to add nearly $20M in core pre-provision net revenue in Q4 2025.

Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 22, before the opening bell. The company’s quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have increased year over year.

In the last reported quarter, the bank’s results reflected improvements in net interest income (NII) and fee income. Also, an increase in average loan and deposit balances supported the results. However, an increase in non-interest expenses acted as a headwind.

HBAN has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and matched once, the average beat being 6.2%.

HBAN’s Recent Developments

Earlier this month, Huntington Bancshares received shareholder approvals for its $7.4 billion all-stock acquisition of Cadence Bank, which is expected to close on Feb. 1, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. The transaction will further expand HBAN’s footprint across the southern United States and enhance its scale in several high-growth metropolitan areas, including Austin, Atlanta, Nashville, Orlando and Tampa.

In October 2025, the company completed its previously announced $1.9 billion all-stock merger with Veritex Holdings, significantly strengthening its presence in high-growth Texas markets, including Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston. Management expects the Veritex integration to contribute about $20 million in core pre-provision net revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025. Following the acquisition, the company also raised its 2025 net interest income growth outlook to 10%–11% from the previously stated guidance of 8%–9%, supported by stronger loan and deposit growth, particularly in Texas.

Now, let us discuss the factors that are likely to have influenced Huntington Bancshares’ fourth-quarter performance.

Key Factors & Estimates for HBAN’s Q4 Performance

Loans & NII: The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates twice during the fourth quarter of 2025, including a 25-basis point cut late in the quarter. While asset yields likely remained relatively elevated for most of the period, stabilizing funding and deposit costs are expected to have supported HBAN’s NII.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $1.61 billion, indicating an 8.6% increase from the prior-quarter reported level.

Per the Fed’s latest data, demand for commercial and industrial and consumer loans remained solid during the fourth quarter of 2025. This is expected to have supported Huntington Bancshares’ average interest-earning asset growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average total earnings assets of $203.1 billion for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 5.4% rise from the prior quarter’s reported level.

Non-Interest Income: Despite a decline in mortgage rates during the fourth quarter of 2025 from early-year levels, refinancing and origination activity did not witness significantly. As a result, HBAN’s mortgage revenue is expected to have remained under pressure in the quarter to be reported.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking income is pegged at $35.5 million, suggesting a 17.4% fall from the prior quarter’s reported figure.

Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) activity strengthened in the fourth quarter of 2025, rebounding from the lows witnessed in April and May following the announcement of “Liberation Day” tariff plans. As corporates adjusted to the evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, deal-making activity picked up. Consequently, the company’s capital markets and advisory fees are expected to have increased during the quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for capital markets and advisory fees is pegged at $104.3 million, indicating a 10.9% rise on a sequential basis.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for wealth and asset management revenues is pegged at $105.4 million, suggesting a 1.5% rally from the prior quarter's reported figure.

The consensus estimate for customer deposit and loan fees for the fourth quarter is pegged at $105.4 million, indicating 3.3% sequential growth.

The consensus mark for insurance income of $19.7 million implies a 1.6% decline from the prior quarter's reported figure.

The consensus estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $601.8 million, indicating a 4.2% decline from the prior quarter’s reported level.

Expenses: Huntington Bancshares’ higher expenses from outside data processing and other services, along with deposit and marketing expenses, are anticipated to have raised its costs in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the bank’s ongoing efforts to expand its commercial banking capabilities in high-growth markets by adding more branches are expected to have increased expenses.

While efficiency initiatives are expected to have reduced expenses to some extent, long-term investments in key growth initiatives, along with acquisition-related expenses, are likely to have kept the company’s expense base higher.

Asset Quality: HBAN is likely to have set aside higher reserves, particularly within its commercial loan portfolio, amid a slowdown in job growth that could weigh on consumer demand and lead to higher delinquencies.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total non-accrual loans of $896 million indicates a 10.9% increase from the prior quarter's reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total non-performing assets is pegged at $821 million,unchanged from the prior quarter’s reported level.

What Does Our Model Unveil for HBAN?

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Huntington Bancshares this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Huntington Bancshares has an Earnings ESP of -0.76%.

Zacks Rank: HBAN currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Huntington Bancshares’ fourth-quarter earnings of 39 cents per share has been unchanged over the past seven days. The figure suggests a 14.7% rise from the year-ago reported number.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.2 billion, indicating a year-over-year rally of 12.3%.

HBAN’s 2025 Outlook

Huntington Bancshares expects average loans to grow 8% on a standalone basis and 9%–9.5% including Veritex in 2025, from the $124.5 billion reported in 2024.

Average deposits are projected to increase 5.5% on a standalone basis and 6.5%–7% including Veritex, from the $155.1 billion reported in 2024.

NII is anticipated to rise 10%–11% year over year from $5.34 billion reported in 2024.

Adjusted non-interest income, excluding notable items, is expected to grow 7% year over year from $2.08 billion reported in 2024.

For 2025, adjusted non-interest expenses, excluding notable items, are projected to increase 6.5% year over year from $4.51 billion reported in 2024.

Net charge-offs are estimated to be in the range of 20–30 basis points.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.

The Earnings ESP for East West Bancorp (EWBC - Free Report) is +0.15%, and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 22. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EWBC’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $2.48 per share.

Truist Financial (TFC - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 21, 2026, before the opening bell. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.88% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Quarterly earnings estimates for TFC have been unchanged at $1.09 per share over the past week.


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